Nigeria’s public discourse has been dominated by a string of headline claims credited to President Bola Ahmed Tinubu about borrowing, revenue performance, the exchange rate, and the state of the economy. In this fact-check, we assess the statements against official records and independent data.
TJ News Nigeria gathered that several of the assertions have circulated widely across broadcast clips and social media in recent days, shaping public perception about fiscal management and economic stability.
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To help readers separate fact from spin, this explainer tests verifiable statements clustered around the four marquee claims. Each item carries a verdict — True, False, or Misleading/Needs Context — with citations to official sources and reputable outlets.
What Was Claimed
- “Nigeria is not borrowing.”
- “We have met our revenue target for the year, and we met it in August.”
- “The economy is stabilised; nobody is trading pieces of paper for exchange rate anymore.”
- “When I took over, it was ₦1,900 to a dollar; it’s ₦1,450 now. Rates have been stabilising.”
Also Read: Black Market Dollar (USD) to Naira (NGN) Exchange Rate Today – September 4, 2025
Why This Matters
Bold economic claims influence markets, shape business decisions, and affect household expectations. Transparent, evidence-based communication builds trust. This fact-check focuses on what official data shows as of September 4, 2025, and flags where context is missing.
The Full Fact-Check
1) “Nigeria is not borrowing.” — Verdict: False
Records show that in July 2025, the Nigerian Senate approved over $21 billion in external borrowing to plug budget gaps and fund projects, following a presidential request. Domestic borrowing is also ongoing, with the Debt Management Office continuing monthly Federal Government bond auctions through June, July, and August. Borrowing remains an explicit component of the 2025 financing plan approved by parliament, contrary to the absolute claim that Nigeria is not borrowing.
2) “We have met our revenue target for the year … in August.” — Verdict: Misleading/Unproven
The approved 2025 budget totals ₦54.99 trillion with a deficit of about ₦13 trillion. Revenue targets vary across documents and officials, but there is no publicly available audited confirmation that the entire revenue target has been met by August. Federal and federation revenues have risen sharply in 2025, with strong non-oil collections and agencies like the Nigeria Customs Service surpassing internal goals. However, these numbers reflect progress rather than full completion of the 2025 target.
3) “The economy is stabilised; nobody is trading pieces of paper for exchange rate anymore.” — Verdict: Mixed/Needs Context
The Central Bank of Nigeria has kept monetary policy very tight in 2025, holding the Monetary Policy Rate at 27.5% in July to sustain disinflation. Inflation eased from 22.97% in May to 21.88% in July, showing signs of macro stability. However, the foreign-exchange market remains dual-track. The official rate has steadied, but the black market still trades at different levels, showing that informal trading persists. Stabilisation is partial, not absolute.
4) “When I took over, it was ₦1,900 to a dollar … it’s ₦1,450 now.” — Verdict: False
At handover in May 2023, the official exchange rate was roughly ₦460–₦470 per dollar, while the parallel market was near ₦750 per dollar. Today, the official rate is around ₦1,521–₦1,531 per dollar, with parallel rates between ₦1,540–₦1,555. Neither figure supports claims of ₦1,900 at inauguration or ₦1,450 now.
Additional Checks Behind the Four Main Claims
5) “Parliament funded the 2025 budget without new borrowing.” — Verdict: False
The 2025 Appropriation Act carries a deficit and includes both domestic and external borrowing. Parliamentary approval of over $21 billion in new external loans in July confirms borrowing remains central to financing.
6) “Domestic bonds have effectively stopped.” — Verdict: False
The Debt Management Office has continued monthly bond auction calendars through mid-2025. Domestic debt issuance remains active, though at varying interest rates.
7) “The naira is stable around ₦1,450 at the official window.” — Verdict: Misleading
Official exchange rates in early September 2025 show ₦1,521–₦1,531 per dollar, not ₦1,450. Rounded numbers should reflect accurate market data.
8) “The black-market premium has disappeared.” — Verdict: False
The parallel market still trades above official rates, with quotes of ₦1,540–₦1,555 per dollar. The gap may be narrower than in 2023–2024 but has not disappeared.
9) “Inflation is down sharply and pressure is over.” — Verdict: Misleading
While inflation has eased to 21.88% in July, it remains elevated. The Central Bank’s 27.5% rate reflects persistent inflationary pressure.
10) “Interest rates are low and investment conditions benign.” — Verdict: False
With the policy rate at 27.5%, financing costs remain high. Tight policy is intentional to cement disinflation, not evidence of a low-rate environment.
What This Means for Readers
- Borrowing continues: Nigeria’s fiscal framework for 2025 still relies on borrowing, both externally and domestically.
- Revenue progress is not total achievement: There is no clear evidence that the entire annual revenue target was met by August.
- Stability is partial: Inflation and exchange rates have improved in some metrics, but informal forex trading and high borrowing costs remain.
- Numbers quoted are inaccurate: The dollar never reached ₦1,900 in 2023, and current rates are not ₦1,450.
Key Takeaway
On available evidence, at least four widely reported claims by President Tinubu are either False or Misleading. Nigeria continues to borrow heavily, revenue targets are not fully met, the economy shows only partial stabilisation, and exchange-rate figures cited are inaccurate.
TJ News Nigeria gathered that citizens, investors, and policymakers should rely on verified data and seek precision in official communication.
Our Sources
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Quotes on borrowing and revenue target: The Nation; Punch reporting on presidential remarks. The Nation Newspaper | Punch
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Budget and deficit: Reuters approval report; parliamentary totals. Reuters
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External borrowing approval: Reuters; Punch; industry republisher summaries. Reuters | Punch
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DMO auctions: DMO official site (bond auction results). Debt Management Office Nigeria
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Revenue performance: Presidency/FIRS-related statements covered by Vanguard and Punch; Customs H1. Vanguard | Punch | TheCable
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FX (official and parallel): CBN exchange-rate pages, market dashboards, and business platforms. Central Bank of Nigeria
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Inflation and interest rate: CBN/NBS; Reuters MPC wrap. Central Bank of Nigeria | Reuters
