Despite a raft of economic reforms introduced by President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s administration, Nigeria continues to grapple with widespread insecurity, rising hunger levels, and an unsustainable debt profile. While the government touts progress on deregulation and fiscal policy overhaul, the socio-economic reality for millions of Nigerians remains dire.
TJ News Nigeria reports that over a year into the Tinubu presidency, the gap between economic promises and lived experiences appears to be widening, prompting renewed concerns about the effectiveness and reach of the reforms.
Key Features of Tinubu’s Economic Reform Agenda
The economic blueprint of the current administration rests on several critical pillars:
- Fuel Subsidy Removal: Announced on Tinubu’s inauguration day in May 2023, this policy aimed to curb massive government expenditure. However, it immediately triggered sharp increases in transport and commodity prices.
- Exchange Rate Unification: The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) under Tinubu moved to harmonize the official and parallel forex markets. This was intended to attract foreign investment but has led to currency volatility and inflation.
- Tax and Revenue Reforms: Led by the Presidential Committee on Fiscal Policy and Tax Reforms, the government seeks to broaden the tax base and reduce reliance on oil revenues.
- Palliative Programs: The administration introduced conditional cash transfers and food distribution schemes to cushion the effects of subsidy removal.
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Insecurity Persists Across Regions
Despite increased military spending and security operations, banditry, kidnapping, insurgency, and communal clashes continue to plague several states:
- North-West and North-Central: Armed bandits and terrorists still launch deadly attacks on villages, schools, and highways in Zamfara, Kaduna, Niger, and Benue states.
- South-East: Separatist agitation and enforcement of unlawful sit-at-home orders continue to disrupt daily life and commerce.
- South-South and Middle Belt: Oil theft, piracy, and farmer-herder conflicts remain persistent.
According to the Global Terrorism Index (2024), Nigeria still ranks among the top 10 most impacted countries globally.
Rising Hunger and Food Insecurity
The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) reports that over 70 million Nigerians are currently food insecure. The World Food Programme (WFP) also warns of worsening hunger in northern Nigeria due to conflict and climate-related crop failures.
Key factors include:
- Soaring food prices triggered by transport inflation.
- Insecurity disrupting farming and food transportation.
- Poor access to fertilizers and agricultural inputs.
A recent FAO report lists Nigeria among the countries with the highest number of people facing food crises in Africa.
Debt Profile: A Growing Fiscal Burden
Nigeria’s total public debt hit ₦121 trillion (approx. $91 billion) by mid-2025, according to the Debt Management Office (DMO). The figure includes both external and domestic borrowing, with debt servicing now consuming over 70% of government revenue.
Experts from the World Bank and IMF warn that Nigeria’s rising debt trajectory threatens future investments in healthcare, education, and infrastructure.
Mixed Reactions from Stakeholders
While the federal government insists that its policies will yield long-term benefits, economists and civil society groups are sounding the alarm on growing inequality and public frustration.
Dr. Ayo Teriba, a Lagos-based economist, noted that “the policies are directionally right but lack adequate social protection mechanisms to shield the poor.”
Meanwhile, the Nigeria Labour Congress (NLC) and Trade Union Congress (TUC) continue to demand a new minimum wage and more comprehensive support for workers affected by inflation.
What Lies Ahead?
As President Tinubu marks over a year in office, analysts say the success of his economic agenda will depend on:
- Sustained security sector reform
- Strengthening of institutional frameworks
- Transparent implementation of social protection programs
- Investment in local production and job creation
Until these are addressed, Nigeria’s road to recovery will remain rocky despite the boldness of its economic reform efforts.
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