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Nigeria’s Super Eagles may have found a renewed lifeline in their bid to qualify for the 2026 FIFA World Cup in the USA, Canada, and Mexico following the withdrawal of Eritrea from the CAF qualification series.
TJ News Nigeria reports that the development could alter how the Confederation of African Football (CAF) calculates group standings for second-placed teams, giving Nigeria a glimmer of hope despite their shaky performances in Group C.
Nigeria’s Struggles in Qualification
The Super Eagles, three-time African champions, have endured a turbulent qualification campaign:
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- They sit third in Group C with 11 points after eight games.
- Leaders South Africa top the group with 17 points.
- Benin Republic are second with 14 points.
Nigeria’s inconsistent run began under former coach Jose Peseiro, who secured two draws before his dismissal. His assistant, Finidi George, stepped in but managed only a draw and a 2-1 loss to Benin Republic.
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In January 2025, the Nigeria Football Federation (NFF) appointed Eric Chelle, the former Mali coach, to rescue the campaign. Since then, the team has improved slightly — recording two wins and two draws.
Yet, crucial draws against Zimbabwe (1-1 in Uyo) and South Africa (1-1 in Bloemfontein) prevented Nigeria from climbing into second place.
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Why Eritrea’s Withdrawal Matters
The Eritrea Football Association withdrew its men’s national team over fears players might seek political asylum during away fixtures, according to the BBC.
This decision could reshape CAF’s qualification process:
- Historically, when Eritrea withdrew in 2010, CAF adjusted its rankings by ignoring results against fourth-placed teams to maintain fairness across uneven groups.
- A similar adjustment was seen in UEFA’s Euro 2016 qualifiers, where the results against the lowest-ranked teams were disregarded when comparing groups.
If CAF applies a similar rule, Nigeria’s standing in the race for best runners-up could improve, keeping their World Cup dream alive.
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What Nigeria Needs to Qualify
For the Super Eagles, the road is narrow but still open:
- Finish Second in Group C
- Only the top team qualifies automatically.
- Nigeria must overtake Benin Republic to secure second place.
- Target the Playoffs
- Second-placed teams across all CAF groups will be compared.
- Nigeria must rank among the best second-placed teams to qualify for the inter-confederation playoffs.
- Benefit From Adjustments
- Eritrea’s withdrawal could alter the calculations, potentially erasing results against weaker sides and narrowing the points gap between groups.
Possible Boost From FIFA Sanction
In a separate twist, Former FIFA Disciplinary Council member Raymond Hack suggested that South Africa could be sanctioned for fielding an ineligible player, Teboho Mokoena, during their 2023 qualifier against Lesotho.
If FIFA takes disciplinary action, it could deduct points from South Africa, potentially changing the outlook of Group C.
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Nigeria’s Position in Group C
- South Africa: 17 points (1st)
- Benin Republic: 14 points (2nd)
- Nigeria: 11 points (3rd)
- Other group contenders include Rwanda and Lesotho.
Despite being third, Nigeria’s position remains salvageable if they win their remaining matches and CAF adjusts standings due to Eritrea’s withdrawal.
Key Takeaways
- Nigeria sit third in Group C with 11 points after 8 games.
- Eritrea’s withdrawal could alter CAF’s method of ranking group runners-up.
- Eric Chelle has steadied the team with 2 wins and 2 draws since taking over.
- Nigeria must finish second to reach the playoffs.
- Possible FIFA sanction against South Africa could open the door further.
Editor’s Note
While the Super Eagles’ qualification path for the 2026 FIFA World Cup remains complicated, the withdrawal of Eritrea and possible sanctions on South Africa present unexpected lifelines. To capitalize, Nigeria must win their remaining fixtures and hope CAF’s adjustments swing in their favour.
For now, the dream is not over — and the Super Eagles still have a chance to soar to the World Cup stage.
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